Bangladesh's army-backed emergency government has revived its 'minus two' plan to oust two ex-prime ministers from politics by arresting one and summoning another to court, analysts said Tuesday.
The interim government came to power in January following months of turmoil, with a promise to clean up Bangladesh's notoriously corrupt politics which had been dominated by Sheikh Hasina Wajed and Khaleda Zia for 16 years.
After arresting more than 150 ex-politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats, it has trained its sights on the "battling begums" - Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League. "It is definitely a manifestation of the 'minus two' formula," said Asif Nazrul, a law professor at Dhaka University.
He said the plan would only succeed if voters viewed it as an attempt to hold the pair to account for corrupt practices, rather than a bid to push them out of political life.
"I think most of the people will look at the issue that way," Nazrul said, but cautioned: "I believe many people will object (unless) the government can establish that it is based on the corruption issue." The two women, who held power alternately from 1991 until 2006, represent two rival political dynasties.
Misrule on a grand scale by the two leaders - known for their bitter mutual dislike - is widely blamed for bringing the country to the edge of anarchy in January, when elections were cancelled and a state of emergency imposed.
Although a government plan to exile them in April failed, analysts said it was clear that efforts to remove them from politics had merely been put on hold until now. On Monday, Sheikh Hasina was arrested and detained pending a police inquiry into extortion charges, while Zia was summoned to appear in court by August 26 on tax evasion allegations.
Sheikh Hasina denounced the accusations against her as politically-motivated during a court hearing, at which she was remanded in custody. "Ideally, the government wanted both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia to quit politics on their own so that a new leadership can emerge in the country," said Dhaka university political science professor Ataur Rahman.
"The government earlier gave the two begums the opportunity to settle abroad but both fought back. So, now there are allegations of corruption against them and they will now have to face the music."
Over the past two months, the government has been calling on the few BNP and Awami League leaders not behind bars to institute reforms that would make their parties more democratic. Commentators, however, believe these party figures are being pressured into dethroning Zia and Sheikh Hasina under threat of being arrested for corruption if they fail to do so.
"It won't do any good for this government or the democratic transition that we are looking for," said Harun-ur-Rashid, also a professor of political science at Dhaka University. "Eventually, what will happen is that a void will be created in the political leadership and the army will take over power."
The interim government, headed by former central bank governor Fakhruddin Ahmed, came to power on January 12 after months of violence in which at least 35 people died. Ahmed and army chief Lieutenant-General Moeen U. Ahmed have pledged to implement wide-reaching reforms to strengthen democracy before holding elections in late December 2008. Moeen has stated that the army has no intention of staging a permanent take-over.
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