The US September 2007/August 2008 season soyabean harvest is likely to fall to 72.40 million tonnes from 86.77 million tonnes in 2006/07, German oilseeds analysts Oil World forecasts.
This is 5.2 million tonnes lower than its previous estimate and follows last week's US Department of Agriculture report which forecast a larger-than-expected swing in US plantings from soyabeans to corn for biofuels. "As corn has replaced soyabeans on some of the most productive areas, it will be difficult for soyabeans to repeat the above-average yields of the past two years," Oil World said.
Despite the lower-than-expected crop, Oil World has raised its forecast of US 2007/08 crushings to 50.0 million tonnes from an estimated 48.70 million tonnes in 2006/07. "For next season we still expect a further increase in US soyabean crushings to satisfy prospective demand for soyaoil and meal," it said.
"Although US soyabean stocks will be a record high at the beginning of the 2007/08 season, such a low prospective US crop will sharply tighten the US and world balances of soyabeans," it added.
It forecasts US soyabean stocks at end-August 2007 at 15.60 million tonnes, up from 12.23 million tonnes at end-August 2006. But the reduced crop coupled with high demand means US end-August 2008 soyabean stocks are forecast to fall to 5.0 million tonnes, it said.
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