Wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled higher on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday's lower close on bullish weekly export data and a forecast for tighter global wheat supplies, traders said. The International Grains Council cut its 2007/08 world wheat production estimate to 614 million tonnes, down 7 million from its May forecast.
The IGC, based in London, also pared its world wheat ending stocks forecast to 111 million tonnes, below the US Agriculture Department's latest estimate of 112.03 million.
French wheat futures rallied to new historic highs after the IGC report. CBoT July wheat settled up 3 cents at $6.09 per bushel but stayed inside of Wednesday's wide trading range. September rose 2-1/4 cents to end at $6.23-3/4, and December was up 4-1/2 at $6.33. Back months were up 5-1/2 to down 2 cents.
Funds bought 2,000 contracts, traders said. Weekly export data was bullish. The USDA reported export sales of US wheat at 622,800 tonnes, above trade estimates for 200,000 to 400,000 tonnes. Worries about continuing harvest delays in the southern US Plains added support, especially in the Kansas City market, following more rains in the region on Wednesday.
KCBT July wheat settled up 11-1/4 cents at $6.00-1/4. Traders were positioning ahead of USDA's June plantings and quarterly stocks reports on Friday. The average estimate among analysts surveyed by Reuters for US 2007 all-wheat area was 60.382 million acres, up from USDA's March forecast for 60.303 million.
Analysts pegged US June 1 wheat stocks at 419 million bushels, below the 572 million of a year ago. The figure is up from USDA's latest 2006/07 wheat ending stocks estimate of 417 million.
Friday is also first notice day for deliveries on CBoT July contracts. Because of weak cash markets for soft red winter wheat, traders were expecting heavy wheat deliveries of 2,000 to 3,000 lots. CBoT July wheat stayed above all key moving averages. The contract's nine-day relative strength index stood at 67 ahead of the open and closed at 68, approaching the 70-to-100 range that technical traders view as an overbought signal.
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