The number of personal computers in use world-wide will top one billion by the end of 2008, and grow to two billion by 2015, a market research firm predicted on June 11.
Forrester Research said its report expects an average annual growth rate of 12 percent in computers put in service between 2003 and 2015, with much of that coming from emerging markets and programs in place to reach previously untapped markets. While it took 27 years to reach one billion PCs, Forrester says it will take only five years to reach the next billion, due to new technology, lower prices and global demand from technology-aware populations.
According to Forrester, the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China will account for more than 775 million new PCs by 2015. Forrester research chief Simon Yates said this growth in new markets is essential to the high-tech industry.
"The industry can probably survive selling incrementally better hardware and software to the people who already have technology in their lives, but the vast majority of growth in the PC and related industries will come from emerging markets," he said.
The projection comes as a program aimed at delivering low-cost laptop computers - initially designed to cost 100 dollars - to children in poor countries is making progress, and getting competition from private companies including US-based Intel and Novatium from India.
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