Last week, the PBIF issued a statement urging the government to reduce the area under wheat cultivation. There are inadequate storage facilities for the excess wheat, which cannot be exported due to the high support price something this column has mentioned numerous times as well. The increase in the area under wheat, however, warrants some analysis.
As per the graph, wheat seems to occupy the most area and has indeed seen significant growth over the years. As a percentage of the net sown area, it has increased from 37 percent in FY01 to 41 percent as of FY16. Meanwhile, the area under rice, cotton, and sugarcane as a percentage of the total cropped area has only increased marginally over the same period (or declined, as in the case with cotton).
Its important to consider that the increase in area under wheat cultivation may not have come at the expense of the other crops, particularly cotton, which has seen an overall decline over the years. Theoretically speaking, there should be no conflict as wheat is a Rabi crop, while cotton is Kharif. BR Research spoke to a couple of agriculturalists, who confirmed this notion to be true. The decline in cotton can be explained by a shift towards sugarcane and maize, amid other reasons that this column has highlighted in the past (See The cotton crisis cometh, published on October 16, 2016).
There are then a couple of reasons behind the increase in area under wheat. Firstly, recall that around 50-60 percent of wheat grown in Pakistan is consumed on farm. With the increase in population, more wheat is now being grown and it may be seen as a sort of organic growth. Secondly, wheat can be grown on most lands. With the total cultivable area in Pakistan increasing save for the decline since the 2010 floods the area under wheat has gone up as well.
Finally, the support price has undoubtedly played some part in increasing wheats popularity. However, it begs the question: why has the area under sugarcane not skyrocketed, since its price is also fixed? That is a subject this column will take up soon.
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