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Markets

Sterling firm near 12-week high, awaits UK GDP reading

Published Updated

imageLONDON: Sterling traded near a 12-week high against the dollar on Wednesday as expectations grew that Britain would vote to remain in the European Union.

A preliminary report on first-quarter economic growth due at 0830 GMT could also move the pound. A Reuters poll predicted the report would show the economy grew 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 2 percent annually. Missing the forecast could cause the pound give up some of its recent gains.

"While sterling/dollar is undeniably bullish as of now, investors should be diligent as data from the UK remains soft," said Lukman Otunuga, analyst at FXTM. Subdued data would give the Bank of England little incentive to raise interest rates anytime soon, Otunuga said.

Sterling was up 0.25 percent at $1.4616, not far from a 12-week high of $1.4640 struck on Tuesday. Two polls on Tuesday showed those campaigning for Brexit were ahead, but the chances Britain will stay a member remain around 70 percent, according to Betfair.

On a trade-weighted basis, sterling was at 86.7, its highest in just over two months. It had fallen sharply since November, but has recovered 2.4 percent in value this month.

Despite the bounce, investors are cautious about making significant bets in favour of the pound. They worry that a vote for Brexit in June would leave Britain exposed to a slide in the pound, raise the cost of financing its huge public debt and undermine a shaky economic recovery.

Brexit would also hit workers in their pockets, costing the average working Briton the equivalent of a month's salary by 2020, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Wednesday.

Only last week, U.S. President Barack Obama warned Britain would move to "the back of the queue" in trade talks with Washington if it left the bloc.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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