RIGA: Latvia holds a snap general election Saturday sparked by an unprecedented referendum, a vote that could make a pro-Russia party the largest for the first time since independence from the Soviet Union.
A survey this week by the Latvijas Fakti pollster suggested the left-leaning Harmony Centre could take 20 percent of the vote, and the centre-right Unity movement of Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis, 14 percent.
Harmony Centre is rooted in the Russian-speaking minority -- 27 percent of Latvia's 2.2-million population -- which has not had a party in government since the collapse of the communist rule in 1991.
But in recent years it has made some progress bridging the gap between the ethnic-Latvian majority and Russian-speakers, as ethnic divisions slide down the agenda amid an economic crisis.
"I believe we've managed to get our message across," Nikita Nikiforov, a Harmony Centre lawmaker who entered parliament in last October's regular general election, told AFP.
"In terms of seats, it looks like we will win this election, but whether it will bring us closer to executive power is another question," he added.
In May, then-president Valdis Zatlers called Latvia's first-ever referendum on the dissolution of parliament just nine months after the last elections.
Zatlers claimed "radical action" was required to axe "oligarchs" -- a small cadre of influential businessmen-cum-politicians.
In the July plebiscite, voters overwhelmingly backed Zatlers, but by then, parliament had exacted revenge by electing wealthy ex-banker Andris Berzins to the presidency instead of giving Zatlers a second term.
Zatlers went on to create his own movement, the Zatlers' Reform Party, which has a poll rating of 11 percent.
He has pledged to finish the job of cleaning up politics and to bring new faces into public life.
In a surprise move, Edmunds Sprudzs, a previously unknown 31-year-old businessman was announced as the party's candidate for prime minister.
Sprudzs insists that the snap election has been good for democracy.
"The short time for preparation, the empty cash drawers of the parties and the inability to raise funds quickly for an extensive campaign means there is less money influencing the voters," Sprudzs told AFP.
"Everything is so rushed that politicians have to show their real faces."
Voters are unsure, however.
"I doubt this election will change much, but even so I will vote. It is my duty," said Maiga Majore, 65.
Dombrovskis is confident.
"An election campaign is very stressful and intense, so it's positive that we see Unity's approval ratings growing and we are expecting a good election result," he told AFP.
His image has been plastered on election posters declaring him "The Best Prime Minister".
In power since March 2009, when a previous government collapsed, the 40-year-old premier has gained international plaudits for steering Latvia out of the world's deepest recession and back into growth.
Despite a draconian austerity drive under the terms of an international bailout, his government won a new mandate in last year's election.
But frictions emerged with his coalition allies from the Union of Greens and Farmers, and they fell out over the failed re-election of Zatlers, as the Union pushed Berzins, one of its lawmakers.
The Union and the Nationalist Alliance are the only two other parties expected to cross the five-percent threshold to win seats in the 100-seat legislature. Both have ratings of around eight percent.
The post-election period will see several weeks of coalition jockeying in Latvia, which joined the European Union in 2004.
"Harmony Centre may make the breakthrough to be the largest party, but that doesn't mean it will make much difference in Latvian political life because the Latvian parties will do their best to leave them out of any ruling coalition," said political scientist Ivars Ijabs of the University of Latvia.
Copyright AFP (Agence France-Presse), 2011
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