WASHINGTON: The United States has sharpened its criticism of Syria amid a deadly crackdown on anti-regime protests, but analysts said Saturday that President Barack Obama's options are limited.
The White House has little leverage on Syria, which it classifies as a state sponsor of terrorism, compared to Egypt, which as a recipient of US aid gave Obama a stronger foundation to push for regime change, analysts told AFP.
Even as activists say the death toll from Friday's protests in Syria could top 100, Obama and other world leaders haven't called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down -- as they did with prior uprisings.
"This is not Egypt, this is not Tunisia, you can't think this way," said Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
"The army is not going to turn against the dictator here," he said of Syria. "This is a big tar pit for the United States. It's difficult to figure out a way to move this forward in a constructive manner."
Obama on Friday made his toughest comments yet on Syria, condemning "outrageous human rights abuses" by Syrian forces -- and on Saturday more than a dozen mourners were shot dead during funerals -- but left open the possibility of a future with Assad, calling on him "to change course now."
Options for Washington include recalling the US ambassador to Syria -- Robert Ford, who just arrived in January in a bid to improve relations, or going to the UN Security Council for sanctions, they said.
But before calling for regime change, analysts said Obama must consider the regional impact, including broader Arab-Israeli peace.
Bilal Saab, a Middle East expert at the University of Maryland, said he personally thinks Obama should call for Assad's ouster, but understands the difficulties.
"Morally that's the least he should do, but he's got to consult with his allies in the region. As an analyst, I see that as difficult and complicated," Saab said.
Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all have an interest in maintaining the status quo, he said.
Turkey is satisfied with how Syria handles the Kurds, and Israel takes a "the devil you know" approach to Assad, fearing that his successor would be worse, while the Saudis "still see Syria as a check on Iranian intervention in the region."
But some observers say fears of a post-Assad Syria are unfounded because the current Damascus regime already has close ties to Iran and support anti-Israeli Hezbollah and Hamas.
"Washington is really confused with what to do," said Saab, who advocates for Washington to recall its ambassador and seeking UN sanctions. "You see that confusion in a string of events in the region."
On Saturday, a State Department official speaking on condition of anonymity would not comment on what's to come next, but said there are internal talks on options.
"We continue to look within the administration for ways that we can pressure the government of Syria, but at this point we're not prepared to go into further details on what that would entail," the official told AFP.
When asked during a press briefing Thursday about Assad possibly being overthrown, State Department spokesman Mark Toner replied: "He's certainly facing a serious challenge, he and his government, from the Syrian people.
"They've expressed their aspirations," he continued, "they want to see change, and so far it appears that he's not met that -- those aspirations, so -- but as to his future, it's pretty clear that he needs to either do more or allow others to do more."
Thomas Lippman, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the United States hasn't shown a clear policy to regional unrest that includes anti-government protests in Yemen and Bahrain -- both US allies.
"You made this little-bit pregnant move in Libya," Lippman said of US military action in support of a UN no-fly zone in Libya. "They look like they lack an overall policy -- politically and ethically -- and that's a hard position to defend."
"They are in a terrible dilemma," he added. "Do you want to step in now and support Syrian rebels, and drive Assad deeper into the Iranian embrace? Do nothing and risk being called wimpy?"
An editorial Saturday by the influential Washington Post claimed Obama has "not kept his word" on helping freedom-seeking Arabs.
"As a moral matter, the stance of the United States is shameful," the newspaper said. "To stand by passively while hundreds of people seeking freedom are gunned down by their government makes a mockery of the US commitment to human rights."
But Landis, the Oklahoma professor, said toppling Assad would spark a civil war.
"It's a bunch of young activists protesting, there's no leadership. That doesn't mean they can lead a country," he said.
"Obama's caution has been well founded. This is an Arab spring; it's not an American spring."
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