BANGKOK: Only a week after Thailand's military coup, some economists are upgrading their estimates for an economy that seemed headed for recession.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy shrank 2.1 percent in the first quarter after nearly seven months of political protests depressed activity, but change has come swiftly.
The military council ended the protests and moved quickly to tackle economic problems that had piled up in the absence of a proper government since December, making delayed state payments to rice farmers, rolling over tax cuts, restarting government spending and looking to fast-track infrastructure projects.
"We are now positive about the economic outlook in the second half, seeing growth then of 3-5 percent," said Pragrom Pathomboorn, an economist with KGI Securities in Bangkok.
"The coup could be better for the country than a crippled caretaker government. I'm not so pessimistic now," he added.
Pragrom is forecasting economic growth of 1.9 percent for the full year, down from the 3.0 percent he had expected last November as the protests were starting up. But if the unrest had dragged on, he would have been looking for just 0.8 percent.
Thammarat Kittisiripat, an economist with TMB Bank, is keeping his forecast of 2 percent for the moment but says "there is a bit of upside on that now the military government will speed up disbursements and rice payments".
Hundreds of thousands of farmers have been waiting months for payments totalling around 90 billion baht ($2.75 billion) for rice sold into a state buying programme.
The junta has indicated that will all be paid within a month and much is likely to be spent rapidly. Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong, who is overseeing economic matters, said the rice payments could add 0.2 percentage point to growth this year.
Thammarat is hopeful about more measures to spur spending.
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