European rapeseed helped by mild winter, sudden frosts feared

An unusually warm winter has helped European rapeseed crops and a larger harvest is expected despite autumn rain which caused serious disruption to sowings, experts said on Friday.

But rapeseed, Europe's most important oilseed for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, has often not been winter hardened and is vulnerable to sudden frosts.

The European Union plus non-member Britain are expected to harvest 17.1 million tonnes of rapeseed in 2020, up 2.3% on the year, grain trade association Coceral forecasts.

France's rapeseed area is expected to remain around last year's low level after another weather-disrupted sowing, while crop conditions are varied after an extremely wet autumn and mild winter.

Consultancy Strategie Grains sees the French rapeseed area close to last year's at around 1.1 million hectares and a crop of around 3.9 million tonnes, up from around 3.5 million last year.

"The situation in France is far from rosy and conditions are pretty contrasting," said Strategie Grains crop analyst Vincent Braak.

"But our outlook is less pessimistic than for Britain. Rapeseed crops seem to have recovered better in France."

Fields in some regions had dried off after torrential rain in autumn and mild winter temperatures were allowing decent plant growth, he said.

Germany's crop may rise 10.7% to 3.1 million tonnes after plantings were expanded, Coceral estimates.

"Frost damage to German rapeseed is insignificant this year but the lack of winter hardening means a sudden fall in temperatures would be a worry," a German analyst said. "But warm weather is still in the forecasts. Insects are also surviving the warm winter which could pose a threat."

In Poland, rapeseed has also generally escaped frost damage and rainfall has also been satisfactory and growth is gaining momentum, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.

"Rapeseed will be very susceptible to damage, especially during days with large temperature fluctuations with sunny days and night frosts," he said.

With Polish farmers turning to other crops, plantings are estimated to have been cut to about 800,000 hectares from 850,000 hectares harvested in 2019, Sabaranski estimates.

Britain's rapeseed plantings were cut sharply as prolonged rain forced many farmers to switch to spring planted crops.

Britain's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimates UK rapeseed plantings at 361,000 hectares, down 32% on the season which could be the smallest area since 2002.

"The East Midlands, South East and South West have particularly recorded area decreases, reducing by 58%, 68% and 63% compared to 2019 areas, respectively," the AHDB said. British crops are also vulnerable to insect pests including the cabbage stem flea beetle, it said.