Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season for the fifth month in a row, pointing to strong demand notably from China.
In monthly supply and demand forecasts for major cereals in the EU's largest grain exporter, FranceAgriMer pegged French exports outside the EU in the 2019/20 July/June season at 12.6 million tonnes, up from 12.4 million seen in January. The revised 2019/20 wheat export forecast was now 30% above last season.
The second-largest French soft wheat harvest on record, less competition than usual from Russia and a rare run of sales to China have bolstered French wheat exports so far this season.
French soft wheat exports to China this season are expected to jump to between 1.0 and 1.2 million tonnes, Marc Zribi, the head of FranceAgriMer's grains and sugar unit told reporters.
In the first six months of the season China imported 643,000 tonnes of French wheat, nearly five times the volume by the same time in 2018/19, according to Refinitiv data.
Sales to France's main client Algeria are seen at 5 million to 5.2 million tonnes, close to last season's tally despite a slow start, Zribi said. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, was expected to import between 900,000 and 1.0 million tonnes of French wheat this season. That compares to 500,000 tonnes shipped in 2018/19, according to French grain exporters group data.
Egypt's state grain buyer GASC has bought 720,000 tonnes of French wheat in tenders since the start of the season.
"Demand is still dynamic but there is still the issue of very low freight rates that increases competition from Black Sea origins," Zribi said.
French wheat failed to sell in Egypt's last tender on Tuesday when GASC bought Romanian and Russian wheat only.
Global freight rates have collapsed in recent weeks as the coronavirus outbreak in China crippled demand for large size cargoes. FranceAgriMer left nearly unchanged its estimate of soft wheat stocks at the end of the season, at 2.4 million tonnes, as a cut to expected exports within the EU offset the increased forecast for shipments outside the bloc.
In other cereals FranceAgriMer raised its estimate of French 2019/20 barley stocks to 2.0 million tonnes from 1.8 million tonnes last month and also lifted its estimate of French maize stocks to 2.2 million tonnes from 2.1 million seen last month.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.