The UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy on Tuesday cut its forecast for Ukraine's 2018/19 crop year wheat and barley harvest and exports due to a severe drought across the country. The consultancy reduced its wheat harvest forecast by 3 percent to 25.5 million tonnes and exports to 16 million tonnes from the 17 million it forecast in May.
The harvest of barley is likely to decrease by 4 percent to 7.1 million tonnes, while 2018/19 barley exports could fall to 3.7 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 4 million tonnes, the consultancy said in a statement. "A precipitation deficit combined with record high air temperatures in May led to rapid exhaustion of soil moisture content," UkrAgro Consult said. "These agro-meteorological conditions will cause a decrease in potential barley and wheat yields in Ukraine," it said.
The Ukrainian state hydro-meteorological centre said last week that drought in eastern and southern regions could shrink Ukraine's 2018 wheat harvest by 15-30 percent below original forecasts. Last month, forecasters said Ukraine's 2018 winter wheat harvest was likely to fall to 24 million tonnes from 25.4 million tonnes in 2017 due to extremely dry weather this spring which will reduce the yield.
This year's winter barley crop could total 2.5 million tonnes compared with 3.03 million tonnes in 2017. UkrAgro Consult said drought could also affect late crops like maize. "It should also be noted that the dry weather may result in some shortfall in maize plantings as growers are expected to prefer sunflower," it said.
"The weather conditions are not yet critical to maize, but this crop will also suffer unless it receives enough precipitation in the summer," UkrAgro Consult said. Ukraine's agriculture ministry has said it keeps the 2018 grain harvest forecast unchanged at around 60 million tonnes despite poor weather.
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