A small global sugar surplus is forecast for the 2017/18 season although weather risks including a potential El Nino mean it may not materialise, Paris-based commodity trade house Sucres and Denrees (Sucden) said in a quarterly report on Tuesday. Sucden said the sugar market could switch to a surplus of one to two million tonnes, raw value, in 2017/18 (October to September) following deficits in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons.
"Sugar production could increase by 10 million tonnes, year on year - this increase being located mostly in India, the EU, Thailand and China - and reach a new record of 183 million tonnes," Sucden said.
Downside risks to its production forecast included a possible El Nino weather event which would increase risks of a disappointing monsoon in India and dry weather in much of Asia and Australia.
"Given the downside risks derived from weather uncertainties in particular, it cannot be ruled out that it (the forecast surplus) could disappear at some point," Sucden said.
MDA Weather Services meteorologist Kyle Tapley told Reuters on Tuesday that weather models show a marginally weaker monsoon for India.
"The early part of the monsoon season looks slightly below normal," he said. "It is too early to talk about the second half."
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