Russian grain exports could exceed official estimates of 27 million tonnes in 2011/12 as ports thaw and return to normal operations, new export outlets emerge, state stocks are sold and demand from Iran continues, SovEcon agricultural analysts said.
"Despite a noticeable export decline in January and February, total export of cereals, including flour, rice and legumes, reached 21.4 million tonnes from July to February, or 23.2 million tonnes, including an estimate for March," SovEcon said on Thursday. "Exports could reach 4 million tonnes from April to June, and as a result exceed slightly 27 million tonnes."
Russia's grain exports will rise in March after a slow February, SovEcon said, but will be still restrained by remaining ice in the Azov-Black Sea shallow-water ports. It expects grain exports, excluding flour and legumes, to reach 1.8 million tonnes in March, up from a seasonal low in February of 1.2 million tonnes. Wheat exports in March could amount to 1.4 million tonnes, of which 703,000 tonnes were exported from 1 till 14 of March.
Between July and the end of February, Russia exported 20.86 million tonnes of grain, excluding legumes and rice, analysts added. Declining wheat export prices and significant grain stocks in shallow-water ports will support export levels, SovEcon said.
Expected grain sales from state intervention stocks, which are due to start in April, will also add to potential exports, it added. SovEcon expects shallow-water ports to diversify the geography of exports and to resume shipping to the Southern Europe, Turkey, Armenia and Middle East. SovEcon's expectations also stem from significant contracts to supply Russian wheat to Iran. "It is possible that these hopes could be partly realised in by grain deliveries to Iran via the Volga and the port of Olya, which are now being prepared," SovEcon said.
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