Opinions in this report represent the views of SovEcon Ltd, an independent research organisation specialising in agricultural production and trade in the former Soviet Union. SovEcon believes that Russia will be able to export 16.5-16.8 million tonnes of grain from July 1 to December 31, which is in line with official estimates.
Exports, which slowed down in September from August, fell by nearly a million tonnes in October to 2.82 million tonnes. They are expected to fall further to 2.5 million tonnes in November and to 1.5-1.8 million tonnes in December. Wheat exports fell by 0.9 million tonnes in October from September to 2.31 million tonnes, mainly due to storms in the main export port, Novorossiisk. Benchmark fourth-grade milling wheat accounted for around 60 percent of July-October exports.
SovEcon expects wheat exports to fall to 2.1 million tonnes in November and to 1.3-1.4 million tonnes in December. Exports in the second half of the 2011/12 crop year to July 1 are expected to decline as international prices are weakening, while domestic are stabilising and even strengthening. Record exports have reduced farmers' wheat stocks not even in the export-oriented southern regions, but also in the centre.
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