Vietnam is on track to export record quantities of rice and coffee this year thanks to rising output and strong overseas demand, and revenue growth from shipments in the first eight months has helped trim the country's chronic trade deficit.
The Southeast Asian country, which is the world's second-largest coffee producer after Brazil and second-biggest rice exporter after Thailand, is having bumper harvests this year but thin coffee stocks have affected export flows. Coffee exports between October 2010 and August 2011, the first 11 months of the 2010/2011 crop year, rose 13.6 percent from a year ago to a record high of 20.8 million 60-kg bags, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said on Thursday.
However, in August alone Vietnam only shipped an estimated 40,000 tonnes, or 670,000 bags, a fall of 49 percent from the same month last year, the GSO said in a monthly report, and well below market expectations of 65,000-70,000 tonnes. Vietnam's coffee crop year starts in October and ends in September, while GSO data is based on the calendar year. After deducting exports, Vietnam may have around 1 million 60 kg bags of coffee left in stock now, more than a month before the next harvest may start, based on traders' 2010/2011 output estimates of some 22 million bags.
At least 70,000 tonnes of coffee shipments from Vietnam have been delayed or not delivered since July after stocks fell ahead of the harvest and strong prices prompted farmers and shippers to renegotiate contracts, dealers in Singapore and Hong Kong said. The next harvest could bring in up to 24 million bags, based on foreign traders' projections. The government has forecast stable coffee exports this year of between 1.15 million and 1.2 million tonnes.
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