Philippines rice imports to fall in 2011

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a US Department of Agriculture attache in Philippines: "After contracting in 2010 as a result of an El Nino dry spell, Philippine rice and corn production are expected to increase in (marketing year) MY10/11 as a result of more favourable weather conditions.
Barring any major natural calamity or prolonged weather disturbance, local rice and corn production is expected to increase again in (marketing year) MY11/12 due to firm demand of the growing Philippine population and continued economic growth. There continues to be no commercial wheat production in the Philippines. Rice is the main staple and is a highly political commodity in the Philippines.
The Philippine government (GPH) has made achieving rice self-sufficiency by 2013-2016 a national priority. New policy directions are being instituted that focus on increasing upland production and reforming the National Food Authority's (NFA) role in trade, local procurement, storage, and distribution. Few analysts believe self-sufficiency is achievable without major overhauls in rice milling and storage.
Rice imports are expected to decline by roughly 1.1 million in 2011 to an estimated 1.5 million tons. The dramatic reduction is due to large beginning stocks from over purchasing in MY09/10, a bumper fourth quarter 2010 harvest and good production prospects for the first half of 2011. For MY11/12, a combination of depleted stocks and increased demand in quantity and quality from a growing population and a growing economy is likely to lead to imports of roughly 2.2 million tons.
Feedcorn demand in MY10/11 was raised slightly due to recovery by the local hog industry from disease-related problems. Feed consumption is expected to increase again in MY11/12, reflecting growth in the livestock and poultry industries while food corn use is expected to increase due to some shifting away from rice demand as a result of cheaper local corn prices. While overall corn consumption is expected to increase in MY11/12, feed and foodcorn imports are expected to decline from the previous year's level as a result of very good production during the year due to expanded area harvested.
Overall wheat demand was adjusted upwards in MY10/11 due to unforeseen entry of large amounts of flood-damaged Australian feedwheat which was competitively priced compared to local and imported yellow corn in late 2010 and early 2011. Milling wheat demand will likely remain stable in MY11/12 despite increasing consumer prices due to the improving Philippine economy coupled with the flourishing food retail industry. Although overall wheat imports are expected to remain flat in MY11/12, increased sales of higher-value US wheat is expected."