World wheat output will rise in 2011, the United Nations' food agency said on Wednesday, while raising its 2010 grains output estimates and warning grain supplies would remain tight as demand grows. Global wheat output is expected to rise 3.4 percent to 676 million tonnes in 2011 due to improved yields and increased planted areas as farmers have sown more grain in response to higher prices, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said in its first 2011 forecast.
The FAO raised its 2010 output estimates of wheat and other grains due to better-than-expected crops in some producing countries, but said global stocks would fall sharply this year as demand increased, especially for feed and biofuels. "FAO's latest forecasts confirm a tightening of the global supply and demand balance in 2010/11 expected to result in a sharp drawdown of world stocks," the agency said in its key Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. (www.fao.org)
The political crisis in Libya and the natural disaster in Japan are likely to pressure agriculture in the affected regions, the Rome-based agency said. Global 2011 wheat crops will remain below the bumper harvests in 2008 and 2009, the FAO said. With coarse grains yet to be planted in the northern hemisphere and a mixed outlook in the southern hemisphere, it was too early to give forecasts for total cereals output this year, it said.
In Russia, where severe drought hit grains in 2010, wheat output is expected to jump 32.5 percent to 55 million tonnes driven by a strong rise in spring plantings and improved yields, the agency said. US wheat output is expected to fall 5.8 percent to 56.6 million tonnes, the smallest crop since 1970. In North Africa, where high food prices triggered protests that toppled the rulers of Tunisia and Egypt earlier this year, early forecasts for 2011 winter wheat and coarse grains are firmer. Above-average grain output is expected in Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, the FAO said.
The crisis in Libya, where UN-mandated forces launched air strikes to stop Muammar Gaddafi's army advance on civilians, has disrupted the flow of goods and services in north Africa, which heavily depends on grain imports, the agency said. A devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, followed by a nuclear disaster, could have a potentially significant impact on the country's agriculture, fisheries and food trade, but it was too early to give precise estimates, the FAO said.
Wheat output in China is expected to fall 1.8 percent to 113 million tonnes in 2011 because of the winter drought. However, its impact may be softened by precipitation, which started in mid-February, and efforts to boost irrigation in producing areas. BETTER THAN EXPECTED 2010 CROPS The FAO raised its 2010 world cereals output estimate to 2.237 billion tonnes from a previous estimate of 2.229 billion tonnes. It also raised its global wheat output view to 654 million tonnes from 653 million tonnes. A better-than-expected wheat crop in Argentina has more than offset downward revisions in Russia's and Kazakhstan's harvests, the agency said.
Global 2010 coarse grains output estimate has been raised by 7 million tonnes to 1.117 billion tonnes largely driven by increased estimates for China, India, Ethiopia and Sudan. World rice output remained unchanged at 466 million tonnes. International wheat prices fell in the first three weeks of March to levels about 40 percent below peaks in March 2008 during the food crisis, which sparked riots in developing countries, the FAO said. Maize prices also fell in March and were 13 percent below the June 2008 peak, it said, adding both wheat and maize prices remained well above a year-ago levels.
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