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The yen fell against the US dollar for a second day on Monday, with investors wary of more central bank selling to weaken the Japanese currency, though markets could test the authorities' resolve by pushing the currency back toward the 80 yen level.
Traders said Friday's co-ordinated invention by the world's major central banks - the first such move since 2000 - had been successful for now, as the dollar stabilised around 81 yen and yen volatility retreated from recent highs. In the near term, analysts said the 80 to 80.85 area could serve as a floor for the dollar against the yen, and a fall below could see renewed intervention by central banks. On the upside, resistance is seen around 82 yen, the post-intervention high set on Friday.
The dollar last traded up 0.6 percent at 81.049 yen on electronic trading platform EBS, moving further away from a record low of 76.25 yen set on EBS last week. Morgan Stanley in a note said their flows data indicated very strong demand for yen last week, with clients buying yen in large amounts with record high trading volumes in yen crosses.
Traders and analysts say the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada together conducted around $32.3 billion worth of yen-selling intervention Friday. Nomura estimates the Federal Reserve spent about $1 billion. Estimates for the Bank of England were not immediately available.
Barclays Capital in a note said that "Japan can sell as much as it desires, as there is potentially no limitation on selling its own currency." For the other G7 countries, the firm said they have more than $53 billion in yen reserves, which "appears sufficient for a while at face value."
Intervention has succeeded in bringing down implied volatility on dollar/yen, with one-month trading at around 12 percent, well off about 21 percent on Thursday. The yen also fell against other major currencies. The euro was last up 0.6 percent while the Australian dollar rose 1.3 percent and the Canadian dollar advanced 0.9 percent versus the yen. Analysts said positive risk appetite, expectations that Japanese money market rates will remain low and the Bank of Japan putting a cap on the yen's rise meant conditions supported at least some yen-funded carry trades.
The euro was last up 0.2 percent at $1.4220 after rising to $1.42405 on EBS, a 4-1/2-month high. Expectations the European Central Bank will lift interest rates at its next meeting in April have supported the euro. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell to 75.340, its lowest level since December 2009.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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