Brazil's soy crop view raised as rains boost yields, says FCStone

SAO PAULO: Brazil's 2017/18 soy crop could reach 107.6 million tonnes, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Monday, raising its forecast from 106.1 million tonnes previously as favorable weather is seen boosting agricultural yields.

"The improvement on the projection for the crop, which is in the final stage of planting, is a result of revising upwards our yield numbers," Ana Luiza Lodi, INTL FCStone grains analyst in Brazil, said in the report.

Lodi said that after a delay in seeding earlier in the cycle due to insufficient rains, when some analysts had expected some crop losses, climate conditions have improved and have been favorable to the development of soybeans.

Brazil is the world's largest exporter of the oilseed and second largest producer behind the United States.

FCStone increased Brazil's soybean agricultural yields estimate from 3.03 tonnes per hectare (45.06 bushels per acre) in its November projection to 3.08 tonnes per hectare (45.8 bushels per acre) currently.

But production would still not match the near-perfect crop last season, when Brazil reached an output of 114 million tonnes with an average yield of 3.36 tonnes per hectare (49.96 bushels per acre).

CORN

The brokerage reduced slightly its projection for corn production in the summer (1st corn crop) saying planted area is even smaller than initially estimated, as producers boosted soy area at the expense of the cereal.

FCStone sees first crop production at 23.44 million tonnes from an outlook of 23.64 million tonnes in November.

It forecast a larger, second corn crop (winter corn crop) at 63.45 million tonnes, versus 67.35 million tonnes last season, which would result in total Brazilian corn production in 2017/18 of 86.89 million tonnes.

"The planting window for the second corn crop should be tighter this year due to the delay in soybean planting," the analyst said, which will lead some producers to refrain from planting too much corn in the winter as risks for production increase outside the ideal window.