SHANGHAI: Money market rates rose slightly in the Chinese interbank market on Monday, reflecting nervousness about the possibility of a year-end funding squeeze.
The weighted-average 14-day bond repurchase rate rose 13 basis points to 3.6323 percent.
The benchmark seven-day repo rate rose 1.18 basis points to 3.5357 percent at midday.
Year-end factors affecting liquidity, including corporate and household cash withdrawals to pay for bonuses and holiday shopping, can be difficult to predict. On Dec. 13, the seven-day was at a low level of 2.5807 percent, before shooting up above the 6 percent barrier on Dec. 29.
The moderate uptick in rates now likely reflects hedging by traders wary of a repeat of the same trend this year. But analysts believe this year is unlikely to see a repeat of last year's spike.
"The period around Spring Festival is generally a period when liquidity is a bit tight, but we don't expect that this year will be as severe as last," said an analyst at a state-owned bank in Shanghai.
Last year's squeeze occurred as normal year-end factors were piled on top of an ongoing central bank tightening cycle. By contrast, the central bank recently loosened policy, lowering the required reserve ratio for large banks on December 5.
Another key difference this year will be finance ministry subsidies to firms, which deposit them in commercial banks. Firms generally receive the bulk of such subsidies in December.
Based on the volume of subsidies received so far this month, subsidies are on pace to reach 1.3 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan ($204.3-$235.7 billion), compared with only 8.9 trillion yuan in December last year, the analyst estimated.
But with analysts still divided over whether Chinese policymakers are fully committed to a shift towards looser money, the market will be watching this week's open market operations closely.
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