Ivorian cocoa output strong, but risks high

Cocoa output from top producer Ivory Coast is running near even with last year despite a political crisis since last month's election that threatens to trigger conflict, exporters told Reuters on Monday. But they warned that if the standoff turns violent, it could pose a big threat to exports for the rest of the season.
Cocoa arrivals at ports reached around 600,000 tonnes by December 31 since the start of the season in October, exporters estimated, compared with 595,290 tonnes during the same period a year ago. "We have taken advantage of the last 10 or 12 days of the year to make a maximum of purchases during the apparent calm," said the director of an export company based in Abidjan.
He said there was plenty of cocoa arriving from farms upcountry, showing the political tensions have not yet hurt growing or transport operations. Ivory Coast has been in turmoil since a November 28 run-off election that both candidates said they won, leading to a standoff that has killed more than 170 people and threatens to restart a 2002-03 civil war.
Four African leaders are due in Abidjan on Monday in an effort to convinve incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo to cede power to his rival Alassane Ouattara, who has near unanimous international support. West African regional bloc ECOWAS has warned Gbagbo that he will face a military intervention if he does not leave quietly, though Gbagbo's camp has shrugged off the threat and said he is not planning to step down.
"The next three months will be decisive for us in terms of production and purchases, since if there are serious problems as a result of the political situation, that could negatively impact our business," said another exporter. "The risk is enormous for us."
Cocoa futures have pulled back from four-month highs hit in December amid signs the political upheaval has not yet interrupted cocoa flows. Exporters estimated around 65,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to the West African state's two ports between December 27 to December 31, compared with just 30,168 tonnes a year ago.