CBOT wheat may fall further to $4.16

SINGAPORE: CBOT Dec. wheat may fall further to $4.16 per bushel, as it has cleared a support at $4.29-1/2.

The support was provided by the 38.2 percent Fibonacci projection level of a downward wave c, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the June 8 high of $5.51-1/2. The next support will be at $4.16.

Strategically, the target will be confirmed when wheat breaks the immediate support at $4.26-1/2, the Aug. 2 low. A sudden surge above $4.29-1/2 could signal that the break below this level was false, and the target at $4.16 has to be aborted.