SINGAPORE: A three-month target at $2.1725 per lb has been established for New York coffee, but the downside may not be limited to this level, as a chance is high for it to drop to $1.9725.
The contract has moved into a long-term bearish cycle, which may last a few years. Its wave pattern indicates the current wave "c" will travel to $2.1725, the 100 percent Fibonacci projection level, which is also close to $2.1860, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement on the rise from $1.2525 to $3.0890.
It is not very certain if the contract will develop a double-zigzag wave pattern, which means it will form a temporary bottom around $2.1725, and rebound strongly thereafter.
A fall to $2.10 will significantly reduce the chance for such a wave pattern to develop, and the downside will be shifted to $1.9725, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement.
However, the wave "c" is capable of traveling 1.618 times the length of the wave "a", to eventually arrive at $1.7175, the 161.8 percent projection level, if the 1.9725 level fails to hold up the fall.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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