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Markets

Russian rouble falls back with oil

Published January 27, 2016 Updated January 27, 2016 09:08am

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MOSCOW: The Russian rouble opened weaker on Wednesday, tracking a fall in oil prices after strong gains on Tuesday.

At 0740 GMT, the rouble was 1.3 percent weaker against the dollar at 79.30 and had lost 1.4 percent to trade at 86.03 versus the euro.

Oil, Russia's main export, remains the main driver of the rouble's performance, analysts said. Crude oil futures declined on Wednesday, heading back towards $30 a barrel.

"Again, the rouble literally remains an 'oil currency,' almost exactly replicating movements in crude," Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia at ING, wrote in a note.

The rouble's losses have been somewhat tamed by recent data showing China, despite its weakening economy, increased oil imports from Russia in December, while imports from Russia's competitors, Iran and Saudi Arabia, fell.

"It turns out that Russia manages not only to maintain its market share but also to get ahead of rivals," analysts at Forex Club wrote in a note.

Market attention was also focused on the results of the two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting that ends later on Wednesday.

"We are unlikely to see any surprises from the Fed, though the rhetoric will be of interest, given the recent nosedive in commodities," analysts at VTB Capital said.

Should the Fed show restraint regarding the pace of U.S. monetary policy normalisation, it could offset the negative consequences of the potential increase in U.S. oil inventories and push oil prices higher, Igor Kovalev, an analyst at Instaforex investment house, wrote in a note.

"In this case, the dollar/rouble pair may test the 78 (roubles per dollar) level," he wrote. "But the firming (in the rouble) is likely to be limited."

Russian share indexes were mixed, with the dollar-denominated RTS index down 0.4 percent to 680 points, while its rouble-based peer MICEX traded 0.5 percent higher at 1,713 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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