CBOT wheat may retest resistance at $5.94-1/2 in Q2

• The fifth wave labeled 5 is unfolding towards $6.49-3/4, as pointed by a rising trendline.
• This retracement analysis confirms the current really is against the downtrend from $13.34-1/2, which has reversed at the low of $3.59-1/2.

SINGAPORE: CBOT wheat first month may retest a resistance at $5.94-1/2 per bushel next quarter, a break above which could lead to a gain to $6.49-3/4.

The resistance is identified as the 76.4pc projection level of an upward wave C from $4.16-1/4. This wave consists of five smaller waves.

The fifth wave labeled 5 is unfolding towards $6.49-3/4, as pointed by a rising trendline.

This wave has a better chance of extending to $7.32, the 38.2pc retracement of the downtrend from $13.34-1/2 to $3.59-1/2, as when it rises to $6.49-3/4, it will then surely break a resistance at $5.89-1/2.

This retracement analysis confirms the current really is against the downtrend from $13.34-1/2, which has reversed at the low of $3.59-1/2.

A detailed study on the structure of the rally from $3.59-1/2 on the daily chart reveals a zigzag pattern within the wave A.

This pattern consists of three small waves, with the third wave labeled c equal to the first wave labeled a.

This relation may apply to the one between current wave C and the wave A. The implication is the wave C could travel to $6.49-3/4.

Support is at $5.05-1/2, a break below which could cause a fall into $4.50-1/4 to $4.71-1/4 range.