CBOT wheat may rise to $5.22-1/4

SINGAPORE: CBOT March wheat may break a resistance at $5.18-1/4 per bushel and rise to the next resistance at $5.22-1/4, as it has found a strong support at $5.11-3/4.

The support is provided by the 61.8 percent retracement on the uptrend from $5.01-1/4 to $5.29. Wheat failed twice to overcome this barrier. A solid bottom could have formed around $5.11-3/4.

It is too early to conclude that the uptrend from $5.01-1/4 has resumed. However, a further gain to $5.22-1/4 is likely, which is close to the peak of a wave b.

Immediate support is at $5.15, a break below which could signal the continuation of the downtrend towards $5.07-3/4, and the lower support at $5.11-3/4 may not hold any more.