SINGAPORE: CBOT March wheat may retest a resistance at $5.19-1/2 per bushel, a break above which could lead to a gain to $5.23-1/4.
The resistance is established at the 38.2 percent retracement of the uptrend from $5.03-1/4 to $5.29-1/2. The contract failed to overcome this barrier in its first attempt, but may succeed in its second attempt.
The correction from $5.29-1/2 looks deep and long enough to have completed. The uptrend from $5.03-1/4 may have resumed. Another retracement analysis on the downtrend from $5.46-1/2 to $5.03-1/4 reveals that the correction was due to the resistance at $5.30, the 61.8 percent level.
The support at $5.13-1/2, the 23.6 percent level, worked effectively to end the correction. Even though the uptrend from $5.03-1/4 has not resumed, wheat is still likely to climb to $5.23-1/4.
A break below $5.13-1/4 could cause a loss to $5.09-1/2.
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