LONDON: Zinc prices rose on Tuesday towards last week's three-month high as falling stockpiles of the metal underlined a global supply shortage.
Benchmark zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 2.6 percent at $2,683.50 a tonne at 1012 GMT, echoing a 3 percent rise in the most traded zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The metal used to galvanise steel has surged more than 17 percent from August's 22-month low of $2,283 and is close to a high of $2,706.94 reached on Oct 2.
But the rally is likely to be short-lived, Capital Economics analyst Caroline Bain said.
"The market does look a bit tighter currently but over the next three months we see the supply picture improving," she said, predicting prices at $2,300 at tonne at the end of next year.
STOCKS: Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell below 200,000 tonnes from more than 250,000 tonnes in August and are nearing 10-year lows.
Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange storehouses at 29,204 tonnes are the smallest since 2007.
SPREAD: The premium of cash zinc over the three-month contract on the LME rose to $41.25, reversing recent falls and signalling a lack of nearby supply.
TECHNICALS: Zinc was hovering around its 100-day moving average at $2,685. A rise above this level would improve its technical picture.
DEFICIT: Demand for refined zinc will exceed supply by 322,000 tonnes this year and 72,000 tonnes in 2019, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said on Monday.
CHINA OUTPUT: Production cutbacks at China's zinc smelters due to tighter environmental checks and weaker profits had tightened supply, said Dina Yu, analyst at CRU consultancy in Beijing.
China accounts from nearly half of global refined zinc production of around 13.5 million tonnes. It is also the largest consumer of the metal.
OUTLOOK: But a mixture of rising mine output, less pressure on polluting Chinese industry to close during the upcoming winter period and a weakening of Chinese economic growth is likely to turn the supply situation around, said Capital Economics' Bain.
CHINA GROWTH: The International Monetary Fund cut China's 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent, leaving the 2018 forecast unchanged at 6.6 percent. Lower growth implies weaker demand for metals.
It also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 3.7 percent from a July forecast of 3.9 percent for both years.
OTHER METALS: Copper was up 0.9 percent at $6,235 a tonne, aluminium was 0.3 percent lower at $2,060, lead gained 0.6 percent to $1,983, tin rose 0.3 percent to $18,950 and nickel was up 1.6 percent at $12,785.
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