US yields advance on corporate bond supply, rate outlook

NEW YORK: US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, as investors continued to price in more interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve this year and next and amid a heavy corporate bond schedule this week.

US benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields both climbed to fresh four-month peaks.

"A big part of the selling in Treasuries is tied to investment-grade corporate bond supply," said Justin Lederer, Treasury trader at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

"The calendar has been pretty large this week. This is typically Treasury-negative. Investors tend to sell Treasuries because they want to make room for additional corporate bond supply," he added.

Action Economics said in its blog that corporate bond supply this week totaled about $25 billion this week, after $80 billion in sales so far this month. Some of the issuers included Nestle Holdings, Toyota, and General Motors Financial.

Lederer also said Treasuries have sold off in recent sessions given expectations of further monetary tightening by the Fed in 2018 and 2019, more than what the market had expected.

The rise in US average hourly earnings as seen in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report for July and August has backed the view that inflation is picking up, justifying the continuation of the Fed's tightening policy, analysts said.

As a result, interest rate futures have priced in two rate increases in 2018 and also factored in a few more next year, although the probability for 2019 was still under 50 percent.

US government bond investors on Tuesday also shrugged off news of a tit-for-tat on trade tariffs between the United States and China.

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced the imposition of 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, but sparing smart watches from Apple Inc and Fitbit Inc and other consumer products such as bicycle helmets and baby car seats.

He warned that if China takes retaliatory action against US farmers or industries, "we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports."

On Tuesday, China hit back at the United States, announcing it will levy tariffs on about $60 billion worth of US goods, as previously planned, but has reduced the volume of tariffs that it will collect on the products.

Treasury yields rose further on the news.

In midmorning trading, US 10-year yields were last at 3.032 percent, from 3.001 percent late on Monday.

US 30-year yields were at 3.180 percent, from Monday's 3.137 percent.

On the short end, US 2-year yields last traded at 2.790 percent, up from 2.786 percent on Monday.