SINGAPORE: New York cocoa may break a resistance at $2,603 per tonne and rise into a range of $3,051-$3,327 in three months, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.
The resistance is identified as the 38.2 percent retracement of the uptrend from the December 2000 low of $707 to the March 2011 high of $3,775.
The downtrend from $3,775 consists of three waves. This corrective wave structure, along with the strong gains from the April 2017 low of $1,756, confirms a reversal of the trend.
The second wave labelled B peaked around $3,327. Wave theory suggests that this level may be approached. A falling trendline indicates a target in the range of $3,051-$3,327.
Another retracement analysis on the downtrend from $3,775 to $1,756 reveals that cocoa has broken above a resistance at $2,527, the 38.2 percent level. It is heading towards the range of $2,766-$3,004.
For a chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/2GqZkld
A drop below the March 20 low of $2,457 could confirm the break above $2,527 was false, and the support at $2,232 may be approached.
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