SINGAPORE: CBOT corn may retrace towards a support at $3.39 per bushel in three months, following its failure to break a resistance at $3.80.
The support and the resistance are identified respectively as the 7 percent and the 14.6 percent Fibonacci retracements of a downtrend from the August 2012 high $8.43-3/4 to the September 2016 low of $3.01.
Working together with the resistance is another one at $3.86-1/4, the 61.8 percent projection level of a presumed wave (c).
These resistances have formed a strong resistance zone which will surely stop the rally for some time. However, it is not very clear if the current correction could be deep enough to reach $3.39. It may end somewhere above this level as well.
A closer examination on the correction reveals that it is closely related to the previous downtrend from the July 2017 high of $3.94-1/2.
The correction is driven by a wave c, the third wave of a possible flat pattern from $3.94-1/2. This pattern indicates that the wave c may, at its full capacity, travel to $3.24-3/4, the 100 percent level.
However, the pattern may turn out to be a wedge, which suggests a less bearish target zone of $3.40-1/4 to $3.50. A break above $3.86-1/4 (first chart) could open the way towards the range of $4.22 to $4.29.
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