Ukraine raises 2011 grain harvest outlook

Ukraine has raised its 2011 grain harvest outlook by 1 million-2 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 51 million tonnes, First Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Klyuev said on Thursday. "We will harvest 52-53 million tonnes of grain in 2011," he told the parliament.
Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters this month a record maize harvest of about 20 million tonnes was the main reason for the bumper outlook. The ex-Soviet state harvested 39.2 million tonnes of grain, including 11.9 million of maize, in 2010. According to data provided by the agriculture ministry, farms harvested 36.5 million tonnes of grain from 77 percent of the sown area as of September 19. The volume included about 22 million tonnes of wheat in clean weight. Ukraine harvested 16.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2010.
Independent analysts give lower projections than the government and forecast a harvest of about 46.8 million tonnes this year while weather forecasters expect the crops at about 46.0-46.5 million tonnes. UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy said the 2011 grain harvest could include 20.6 million tonnes of wheat, 8.3 million of barley and 15.5 million of maize.
Officials and analysts say the jump in the harvest would in theory allow Ukraine to boost its grain exports to a record 24 million tonnes in the 2011/12 season (July-June) from 12.7 million in 2010/11, but high export duties have prevented a rise in shipments.
In July, the government introduced grain export duties to replace last year's export quotas, instituted to protect home markets after severe drought. The export duty on wheat is 9 percent but no less than 17 euros ($24.30) per tonne. The duty on barley is 14 percent and no less than 23 euros per tonne. The export duty on maize is 12 percent and no less than 20 euros.
The curbs have already reduced Ukrainian grain exports this season and Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters on Thursday the export level of 24 million tonnes this season could not be achieved. "We have to cancel the duties. It would be impossible to achieve our export volume if duties remain," Prysyazhnyuk said. "We hope to cancel them in the near future".
But other ministries have opposed the measure, saying the budget will lose valuable revenues. First Deputy Prime Minister Klyuev said earlier this month the government could extend the duties until the end of the 2011/12 season.