NEW YORK: Rabobank reduced its forecast for a global coffee deficit in the 2017/18 crop year and shifted its 2016/17 estimate to a surplus due to changes in Uganda and some smaller countries, it said in a monthly report on Tuesday.
The bank revised down its estimate for a global coffee deficit to 4.9 million bags in 2017/18, from its prior estimate for a 6.1 million bag deficit. For 2016/17, it forecast a surplus of 1.1 million bags versus a previous estimate for a deficit of 200,000 bags.
For cocoa, Rabobank forecast the world's biggest producer, Ivory Coast, will harvest 1.83 million tonnes in 2017/18. This is down from its prior estimate of 1.85 million tonnes due to higher-than-normal rainfall and the expectation for lower fertilizer use after the government there opted against increasing prices paid to farmers.
It pegged global cocoa grindings will rise 2.3 percent in 2018/19 versus 2017/18.
Potential for a La Nina episode could benefit cocoa output, Rabobank said.
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