ICE raw sugar prices seen recovering slightly by year end

NEW YORK: Raw sugar prices may rally by year end and see higher average levels next year, though the industry is divided on the chances of a recovery from this year's 24 percent rout, a Reuters survey of 10 traders and analysts showed.

Raw sugar on ICE Futures US could rise another 3 percent by the end of the year and average about 5 percent higher in 2018, according to the median estimate of eight responses.

The spread between the highest and lowest expectations for prices by year end was a wide 5 cents.

Benchmark prices have given back all of 2016's rally of 28 percent since the beginning of this year. A recovery to the median price forecast of 15.35 cents per lb would still leave benchmark prices down for the year.

In refined sugar, gains were expected to be more muted as expectations of rising European Union supplies weigh. White sugar futures on ICE will end the year down 3 percent from current prices and average 2 percent higher next year, according to the median survey response.

Production and demand in India will be a key factor for sugar prices in the coming months, respondents said.

"If the crop comes up short against razor-thin supplies then India will be forced into importing," said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.

A steep drop in India's production this year drove hopes for sugar price bulls of increased demand for imports in the world's top consumer, but output is expected to recover next season.

Millers in Brazil's center-south region are expected to produce more sugar in the harvest that runs through December versus the prior year and dedicate 49 percent of their cane to sugar production versus ethanol, the median survey estimate showed.

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Those forecasts were given before news from Brazil that the government will slash taxes on ethanol, which would boost demand for the biofuel and support sugar prices.

A global supply deficit of 3.5 million tonnes in the current 2016/17 year will be followed by a surplus of 4.3 million tonnes in the upcoming year that begins Oct. 1, the median estimate said.