NATO to blink in Qaddafi's war of nerves

BRUSSELS: A man who has been under Western bombardment for more than three months, Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi has not appeared unduly worried.

His appearance playing chess at the weekend with the Russian head of the World Chess Federation, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, was a piece of psychological theatre worthy of a veteran campaigner.

While Qaddafi has seemed to keep his cool, despite a relentless bombing onslaught launched in March, it is his powerful opponents in NATO who have appeared to lose theirs.

Reflecting frustration at NATO's inability to achieve quick results in a campaign some had forecast would be over in days or weeks, the U.S. defence secretary rounded on European allies last week for failing to back the mission the alliance took over in late March.

"The mightiest military alliance in history is only 11 weeks into an operation against a poorly armed regime in a sparsely populated country," Robert Gates said, "yet many allies are beginning to run short of munitions, requiring the U.S., once more, to make up the difference."

Now it's not only bombs, but the planes to deliver them that NATO risks running short of, with no sign of any new commitments to sustain the mission despite dire warnings from Gates about the very future of NATO and direct appeals to defence ministers from alliance Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

While Rasmussen has expressed his hope that the Libya mission can be concluded before the end of a second 90-day operations cycle in late September, many analysts consider this wishful thinking, given Gaddafi's resilience.

A mission that drags on beyond that date could present major problems, with some allies already stretched in their commitment and the United States reluctant to get dragged back into a leading role in the conflict as President Barack Obama faces criticism for the mission in the U.S. Congress.

Only eight of the 28 NATO states have provided planes for strike missions in Libya and pressure by Gates on others with available resources to do so, such as Spain, the Netherlands, Turkey and Germany, appear to have fallen on deaf ears.

Already Norway has announced it will have to scale back its contribution of strike aircraft this month and end their role in August, while European NATO stalwart Britain has said continuing the mission beyond September could be a challenge that could require diversion of resources from elsewhere.

Analysts say this could mean from NATO's war in Afghanistan, still termed the alliance's number-one priority.

Worse looms over the horizon, with France indicating it will need in the autumn to withdraw the Libyan mission's only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, on virtually continuous operations since last year with no replacement in the offing.

COPYRIGHT REUTERS, 2011