Russia competes with the European Union for the rank of the world's largest wheat exporter.
More than 700,000 hectares, about 18% of the region's total area, will be up for potential replanting, though IKAR said it expected the actual resowed area to be smaller.
The consultancy said in a report that the harvest could include 27.6 million tonnes of wheat, 7.97 million tonnes of barley and 35.71 million tonnes of corn. It said a higher output would allow Ukraine to increase grain exports to 54.2 million tonnes in 2021/22 season from 45.6 million tonnes in 2020/21.
Wheat imports for the month totalled 94,956 tonnes, down from 106,531 tonnes in January and the lowest monthly total so far for the 2020/21 season, which runs from July to June.
A slowdown had been expected following the expiration of a transitional trade agreement between Britain and the European Union at the end of 2020.
*That was down from 27.56 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season, the data showed.
* Since Jan. 1, the European Commission's data has covered the EU's 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.
Brisk sales of EU wheat earlier in the July-June season, including large volumes of French wheat for China and German wheat for Algeria, had fuelled talk of tight stocks after a smaller harvest last summer.
Russia's decision to tax wheat exports from mid-February, to help cool local prices, was then expected to bring further demand for EU wheat, but prospects have instead dimmed.
Conditions in the south - Russia's largest wheat producing area - were improved by healthy precipitation, Sovecon said. Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat.
Wheat in the southern part of Russia entered last winter in the worst shape in a decade. However, the 2021 weather was favourable for the region, and crop conditions improved dramatically in recent months.
Benchmark CBOT May soft red winter wheat rose above its 100-day moving average for the first time since March 24 during the overnight trading session. Technical resistance was noted at the contract's 30-day moving average.
CBOT May soft red winter wheat was last up 5-1/2 cents at $6.34-1/4 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last up 5-3/4 cents at $5.82-1/4.
Russia doubled its wheat export tax to 50 euros ($59) per tonne last month in an attempt to curb high food price inflation amid the coronavirus pandemic. The tax was at 25 euro/tonne on Feb. 15-28.
The current low pace of wheat exports brought the estimate down, as did the fall in export prices in March, Sovecon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said in a note.
The central bank has already raised its economic growth projection from earlier forecasts based on a predicted cereals harvest of 9.5 million tonnes, well up from 3.2 million tonnes last year.
"Cereals output is expected to exceed 10 million tonnes this season, which means less imports," he said.
Soft wheat exports to destinations outside the EU-27 and Britain totalled 937,700 tonnes in March, the ninth month of the 2020/21 season, an initial estimate based on Refinitiv loading data showed.
Morocco was the leading destination, accounting for 348,400 tonnes, nearly three times the volume shipped there in February.