The bias could be towards the downside, as a wave C from the April 6 high of $60.90 looks incomplete. It is expected to travel below the March 23 low of $57.25.
"The recent selloff may help reinforce Saudi's cautious stance and delay any production increase," said Stephen Innes, global market strategist at Axi.
However, it is not very clear if the contract bounces towards $61.70 first, before breaking $59.41. Signals on the hourly chart suggests a small chance of the bounce.
The trend was driven by a wave C, which is roughly equal to the preceding wave A. This equality suggests a reversal of the uptrend from the April 22, 2020 low of $15.98.
Due to a small congestion area forming between Feb. 19 and Feb. 22, oil may fail to break $59.08 in its first attempt. A bounce could occur around this level.
This wave could either end around $66.29 or extend a lot to $85.17. Regardless of the ending point of this wave, a consolidation around $66.29 is ongoing.
Based on the drop from this high to the Feb. 19 low of $58.59, oil is supposed to rise to $65.61. A break above $62.08 could signal the continuation of the uptrend.