Chances are the contract may fail to break $14.01-1/4 in its first attempt and then retreat moderately towards $13.89-3/4. A rise to $14.03 may confirm a break above $14.01-1/4.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Thursday cut its 2020/21 corn crop forecast by 1 million tonnes to 46 million tonnes, citing lower-than-expected yields caused by dry weather.
Support is at $5.50-3/4, a break below which could cause a fall into $5.40-1/4 to $5.43-1/4 range. On the daily chart, the contract is rising towards a zone of $5.60 to $5.73-1/4.
Rains disrupted harvest in Brazilian soybean-growing areas, slowing down field work in the world's largest soy producer and potentially delaying planting of the country's second corn crop.
This break is regarded as a convincing signal that the downtrend will be completely reversed. A drop to $13.78 could suggest the break was false, and the target has to be temporarily aborted.
A break below $6.66-1/2, now a support, may cause a fall to $6.58-1/2. On the daily chart, the correction from $6.93 ended around $6.29, the 61.8% retracement.
Resistance is at $5.20-1/2, a break above which could lead to a gain to $5.24-1/2. On the daily chart, the contract is falling towards the Jan. 20 low of $5.12-3/4.
Money managers' net long in CBOT wheat futures and options rose to 13,360 contracts through Dec. 29 from 6,233 a week earlier. That is less bullish than a year ago, but it is uncharacteristically optimistic for the time of year versus other recent years.
8 The contract is riding on a wave 3 that is travelling towards the range of $12.69-1/4 to $12.77-3/4, formed by its 338.2% and 361.8% projection levels.
This pattern suggests a target of $5.94-1/4. It indeed has a more bullish indication that the downtrend from the Oct. 21 high of $6.37-3/4 has reversed.
The most-active CBOT December soft red winter wheat contract ended 2-3/4 cents higher at $5.96-3/4 a bushel.
K.C. December hard red winter wheat closed 4 cents higher at $5.35-1/4 a bushel while MGEX December spring wheat gained 1-3/4 cents to settle at $5.46.