A weaker dollar against most currencies on Monday also supported commodities, with dollar-denominated commodities becoming more affordable to holders of other currencies.
A weaker dollar against most currencies on Monday also supported commodities, with dollar-denominated commodities becoming more affordable to holders of other currencies.
However, this wave count has to be modified, as oil has surpassed $59.04. The strong move indicates the progress of a powerful wave (3)-3, which could drive the market wild.
The consolidation from the Jan. 13 high of $54.72 seems to have been shaped into a wedge, which has been confirmed as a bullish continuation pattern. It suggests a target around $58.01.
The consolidation from $53.93 has lasted so long that it raises some concern on whether the uptrend could remain steady. A break below $51.35 could signal a reversal of the trend.
As long as the contract remains firm above a support at $52.34, the 23.6% retracement of the uptrend from $47.18 to $53.93, it may revisit the high of $53.93.
On the daily chart, oil failed twice to break a support at $54.50, the 261.8% projection level on the uptrend from $39.34. The failures suggest the formation of a double-bottom.
Support is at $55.52, a break below which may cause a fall into $54.83-$55.18 range. On the daily chart, oil stabilised around a support at $54.50, the 261.8% projection level on the uptrend from $39.34.