Brazilian soyabean harvest predictions have inched upward this month, yet they still sit short of the year-ago record. But farmers in the No. 1 exporter have proven they can grow a bean crop and the country could be on its way to a new high in 2018.
Most industry estimates of Brazil's bean harvest range between 110 million and 114 million tonnes. The US Department of Agriculture last week raised its peg to 110 million tonnes from 108 million in December. The weather has been largely supportive for a healthy crop despite a dry start in some of the northern areas. But concern has recently resurfaced for some market-watchers amid heavy rainfall in the south that could impact quality and delay harvest.
In January 2017, most analyst forecasts for last year's crop were in the vicinity of 104 million tonnes. This was ultimately too low to the tune of 10 million tonnes, and the country pulled off a record 114.1 million-tonne harvest. Yield projections are already higher than they were a year ago. Brazil's 2017 harvest notched a record 3.37 tonnes per hectare (50.1 bushels per acre), but earlier estimates were not as generous.
USDA's January 2017 yield estimate for last year's harvest was 3.07 tonnes per hectare. But the agency's target for the 2018 harvest is 3.14 tonnes per hectare, which would surpass 2011 for second place. It is widely expected that Brazil planted a record soyabean area for this cycle. USDA projects the country will harvest 35 million hectares (86.49 million acres) of soyabeans this year, up from last year's high of 33.9 million.
The country's harvest progress typically reaches 10 percent by Feb. 10 and 47 percent by Mar. 10, but the state-level paces can vary widely due to the geographical distribution and local conditions. Many analysts will cite "delays" to this year's soya sowing in the top state of Mato Grosso when evaluating likely outcomes for the crop. The planting pace was indeed a lot slower than last year's lightning-quick effort, but it was very consistent with the five-year average, if not a hair below. But planting delays would be of concern for the soya crop only if unfavourable weather surfaced at the tail end of the growing season, toward the hottest part of the summer. This has not been the case recently as the area has experienced sufficient but not excessive rain and temperatures have been moderate to cooler.
Soyabean delays perhaps have a bigger impact on the country's second corn crop, or safrinha, as farmers like to get that crop in the ground and pollinated before dry season returns. Growers can immediately plant safrinha corn once the beans are cut, so monitoring the harvest pace will be important between now and the end of March. As of Jan. 12, Mato Grosso's soya harvest had reached just 1.29 percent compared with 5.33 a year earlier, though it is far too early to draw any conclusions from this. On average by Feb. 10, some 19 percent of the state's crop should be cut, and this figure stood at 45 percent last year.
The Center-West state achieved a record bean yield of 3.27 tonnes per hectare in 2017. Brazilian agency Conab's recent yield estimate for Mato Grosso is 3.16 tonnes per hectare, though some analysts believe that last year's mark is attainable. The state's safrinha crop also hit a new yield high last year following early planting and favourable weather. Mato Grosso is the top corn-producing state, and the country's safrinha crop is the one primarily used on the export market.
Unlike Mato Grosso, soya planting in the No. 2 state of Parana in the country's southern region moved at a brisk pace for the most part. But recent above-average rains have spurred concerns over soyabean rust and other diseases as well as a delay in the harvest. As of Jan. 15, some 87 percent of Parana's soyabeans were considered in good condition according to the state's official agriculture body. About 62 percent were in the pod setting and filling stage.
One year ago, some 97 percent of the soya crop was in good condition and 60 percent of the plants were setting and filling pods. Nearly 17 percent of the crop was mature as of this week last year compared with only 2 percent today. On average, the southern state can expect about 17 percent of its soyabeans to be harvested by Feb. 10, but that progress had reached only 10 percent a year ago due to heavy rains at the time.
However, last year's slower harvest pace did not stop Parana from reaching a record bean yield of 3.73 tonnes per hectare. Conab predicts a more modest 3.35 tonnes per hectare for the state in 2018.