Bridge notes: 'Is it safe?'

In Bridge many a time an average player feels let down when, playing a contract the cards don't favour him the way he wants. He is further aggravated when the same contract at the other table sails home on almost the same opening lead. The declarer at the other table may not be a better player than him. But a close analysis tells us that it was a makeable contract and yet one declarer failed to make. The vital question is why and where did he flounder? Let us find out by a few simple illustrations, the first of which from a team event puts west east in 3NT with the following hands:
Here the opening lead is the JC after hearing the bidding of west east: 1H-2D-2H-2S-2NT-3D-3NT.
Put yourself in the west seat and plan your play. It looks a rosy contract if diamonds break even 2-2. Even if they break 3-1, 6 diamond tricks plus 3 clubs and a heart with a spade can give you an easy sailing home with a bonus of over tricks. At the first table where the declarer failed, he played AD at trick 2 after QC taken in Dummy. Alas the diamonds broke not 2-2 or 3-1 but at the rare odds of 10% breaking 4-0 with the L.H.O. having 4 diamonds.
At the other table the declarer knowing his safety play technique pretty well, played the 10D at trick 2 from dummy to ensure the contract if LHO has all 4 diamonds even then he can take only 1 trick, whether the first one or a later one, with the opponents unable to take more than 4 tricks before the declarer's diamond suit runs. Even if RHO had 4 diamonds, there would still be some hope hoping for a favourable layouts in the other suits.
The safety play of 10D at trick 2 was necessary to ensure the contract and earn a swing of 11 IMPS being vulnerable. Did you fare well or not?
Moving on to our next illustration here west east reach 6H against silent opponents with the following hand:
The opening lead is the 6H. How would you play as west? You have 4 club tricks, 2 diamond tricks, a diamond ruff making 7 besides AS totalling 8. 4 trumps tricks makeup the 12 required. But again while one declarer failed to make 6H, the other on the other table on the same lead sailed home.
The unsuccessful declarer went for the maximum plunging into the trump finesse by playing the QH and getting a shocking jolt when LHO showed out and the contract now laid doomed with the RHO holding K 10 9 8 always entitled to 2 trump tricks, once the QH is played from hand.
At the other table the declarer was more circumspect in his approach and he reasoned that if trumps are 4-0 and with LHO, the contract has no chance but if RHO has all 4 trumps, there is a safety play to ensure the contract. For after all not all would be in a 29 point slam and therefore, it was vital to play safe. He, therefore, led a low heart to the ace, found the LHO blanking out. A low heart towards QJ ensures that the RHO gets only 1 trick whether he ducks or not the next heart giving declarer the JH and an opportunity to enter dummy with a diamonds ruff to lead another heart towards QH in hand. Although the play was against the odds of 5 percent for RHO to hold all 4 trumps, the odds of a singleton king dropping was 12 percent compared to the finesse of trumps being 2-2 with king onside having odds of 24 percent.
In the next illustration west east reach 6NT on the following hand.
A favourable lead of 9H, covered by 10, and JH from south gives an inkling of a likely 3 tricks in hearts placing QH also with south. But leads can be deceptive. We need to tread on more solid grounds. How would you continue as west?
Quick calculation prompts us that if clubs can yield us 4 tricks, that would be enough. This could be easily achieved, as thought by the declarer at one table assuming club break to be either 3-2 or LHO having the QC doubleton or tripleton with the added chance of RHO having a singleton queen. So be cashed AC and found himself in doldrums when the RHO provided 4 clubs tricks with Q10 poised over KJ. The contract was now doomed.
Did you play better with safety? Yes, lead low to the KC as per standard safety play. Then low from dummy. If RHO shows out, win AC and lead towards JC, 5-0 club break can pose a challenge but here the heart lead gives you the extra trick needed either in hearts or diamonds. The moral of the story here is that at the outset ask yourself "is it safe"?

=====================
WEST             EAST
=====================
10 4 2        K Q 5 3
A 10 8 7 5          Q
5 3    A K 10 9 5 4 2
A K 4               Q
=====================

=====================
WEST             EAST
=====================
A K 5             Q 4
A K 7          10 8 6
A Q 10 9        K 4 3
A 9 5       K J 7 4 3
=====================

=====================
WEST             EAST
=====================
7 6           A J 8 5
Q J 7 5 2     A 6 4 3
A K 6               4
K Q 7         A J 5 4
=====================