Thai floods may cost up to $3.4 billion if they last for 2-3 months

Widespread flooding in southern Thailand may cost 85-120 billion baht ($2.4-$3.4 billion), or 0.5-0.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), if its lasts for 2-3 months, the Thai Chamber of Commerce said on Tuesday. But if they end in one or two weeks, the damage could be around 10-15 billion baht, or 0.1 percent of GDP, Vichai Assarasakorn, vice-chairman of the chamber, told reporters.
However, any impact on tourism has not been large and is manageable, with about 10-20 percent of booked hotel rooms cancelled, he said. The floods, which began on Jan. 1, have killed 43 people, cutting road and rail links, threatening crops and affecting about 1.6 million people.
The flood-hit areas are mainly agricultural, with no concentration of industry. Southern Thailand is a major rubber-producing region. "The main economic crop is rubber, which will not survive more than 20 days of flooding," Vichai said.
Thailand is one of the world's most important producers of natural rubber and the national rubber authority recently said output in 2016-2017 would be about 10 percent lower because of the floods.
Global rubber prices have risen on concern about the impact.
More rain is expected in the region in coming days, a top disaster agency official said on Sunday.
Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said last week that the flooding should not have as long-lasting an impact on the economy as a disaster in 2011.
The country's worst floods in half a century in 2011 killed more than 900 people and crippled industry, cutting economic growth that year to 0.8 percent.
Thailand's economy, Southeast Asia's second-largest, has slowly improved since the army seized power in May 2014 to end months of street protests. But growth remains uneven, with exports and domestic demand remaining stubbornly weak.
Last month, the central bank maintained its economic growth forecast at 3.2 percent for this year and in 2016.