Brazil's soyabean crop seen at 103.5 million tones

As Brazil's 2016/17 soyabean harvest begins, analysts expect a record crop of 103.5 million tonnes thanks largely to good weather conditions, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The estimate, based on the average of 18 predictions by consultants and official bodies, was slightly higher than a forecast of 103.1 million tonnes from a Reuters poll in early December.
Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soyabeans, so an abundant harvest would keep international prices under pressure while replenishing domestic inventories. A record harvest this year would represent a strong recovery after a drought triggered by the El Nino weather phenomenon slashed yields in 2015/16, when output dipped to 95.4 million tonnes.
Now, with Brazil experiencing the milder La Nina, weather-related problems are scarce and fields are generally in good shape. An early harvest has already begun in scattered areas in top producing states, like Mato Grosso. "Crop conditions, in general, are good," said independent analyst Flavio Fran?a Junior, who predicted a 104.7-million-tonne harvest. "There are only pockets of problems, so I don't see any major reason to lower my forecast."
On Thursday, INTL FCStone raised its outlook by almost 700,000 tonnes due to expectations of higher yields in a couple of states. It left its projection of planted area unchanged. Government agency CONAB will publish an updated version of its 2016-2017 crop forecast on Tuesday.
Although many areas are nearly ready for harvest, there are regions where planting took place later and weather can still be decisive for productivity, such as the Matopiba region, formed by Maranh?o, Tocantins, Piau? and Bahia states. In Matopiba, rains were below average in December and in the first days of January.
"Weather forecasts indicate that rains will normalize only in February. We will have to keep one eye on that region," Fran?a Junior said. A Reuters poll of 18 consultants and official bodies also showed Brazil's corn crop should reach 88.1 million tonnes, up nearly 33 percent from last season, which was plagued by below-average rains. Unlike the soya poll, estimates for corn vary widely, from 81.3 million tonnes to 99 million tonnes. The differences were due to divergent views over the winter corn crop, which will be sowed after the soyabean crop is harvested.