If there is one party that can boast of a hold as strong as one could imagine in the financial hub of the country, it is MQM.
With only 18 days to go and MQM amongst the three political parties on the terrorist hit list, the kind of election campaigning that one normally associates with MQM is not really visible yet. That said, such has been MQM’s strength in the city that pundits still believe it could fetch stellar results with minimum outdoor campaign.
And there are numbers that back the claim. In the previous three general elections, MQM has won a massive 75 percent of the available seats in Karachi. The margin of victory is astonishing at nearly 59,000 votes on average – securing 50 percent of the votes casted in the constituencies won.
Number of voters in Karachi has almost doubled to 7.1 million for the upcoming general elections in 16 years. And so has the voter turnout from 28 percent in 1997 to 47 percent in 2008. MQM has witnessed tremendous growth in its approval in Karachi over the past three general elections, having secured 67 percent of the total votes polled in 2008, as compared to 37 percent in 2002. And this is where the catch is.
In 2008, the field was left wide open for MQM as MQM’s main opponent in the city; Jamat-e-Islami (JI) boycotted the elections. Recall that JI had also boycotted the 1997 elections, which enabled MQM secure 51 percent of the total votes polled and 77 percent of the available seats. It was in 2002, when the MQM faced the stiffest competition in Karachi, when MMA, of which JI was a significant part in Karachi, contested from every constituency.
MQM lost seven NA seats in 2002, of which three are traditionally not theirs, but PPP’s. But the other four it lost was a wake-up call as it included some of its strongholds such as NA 252 and NA 253, both of which went to JI candidates. What is worth mentioning is the fact that in 2008, when MQM hardly faced any competition, the average winning margin was 94,551 votes, whereas in 2002 it was nearly a third of it at 29,041 votes.
Strangely enough, the voter turnout in 2008 was significantly greater despite JI’s boycott, and MQM’s popular votes in the city went from 0.66 million in 2002 to 2.12 million in 2008. Some related it to the party’s performance in the local government, which earned it new supporters. But it will be interesting to see if JI’s participation actually results in an increased voter turnout – as some circles also believe that the absence of JI might have resulted in ghost vote casting.
From what it appears, 2013 general elections won’t be a walk in the park for MQM as major opposition parties (read JI and JUI-F) have agreed on a seat adjustment formula on most seats in Sindh.
The PPP will be content to walk away with two of its traditional seats – NA-248 and NA-258. NA-239 might be a tough seat to win for MQM, as the religious parties have agreed on a joint candidate, a seat which MMA won in 2002. Similarly, NA 250, NA-252, NA 249 and NA 253 are tipped to be hotly contested. What could possibly go in MQM’s favour is PTI’s failure to agree on seat adjustment with JI – which many thought would dent MQM’s chances in the city.
MQM is least likely to lose the city’s hold, but for sure the 2013 general elections will probably be the most closely contested in the city’s recent history.
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KARACHI ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT
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1997* 2002 2008*
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Registered votes (mn) 3.63 4.79 6.68
Turnout 28% 37% 47%
% of seats won - MQM 77% 65% 85%
Avg victory margin - MQM 37,368 29,041 94,551
% of popular votes - MQM 51% 37% 67%
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* JI boycotted
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Source: CWS Paksitan Election Compendium, BR Research
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