BR Research

LSM stats show the first hints of positivity

Published November 19, 2012 Updated November 19, 2012 12:00am

Much like a castle built out of particularly unresisting sand, large scale manufacturing has been swept out to sea amidst the severe and persistent energy issues plaguing the country. But LSM statistics for the month of September finally saw some ground being regained by the countrys industrial output that has largely remained under duress for much of the last year.
The period from July-September saw large scale output record a 1.8 percent growth over the same period last year, with the usual Food and beverages production leading the growth spurt. Data released by PBS also shows a significant improvement in production figures for iron and steel products, pharmaceuticals, paper and board along with leather and chemical products for the month of September.
However, overall the growth in the Food sector has remained the only consistent factor supporting the otherwise ailing LSM numbers, with corporate giants like Engro and Unilever chalking out hefty profits quarter after quarter as consumer demand skyrockets.
Textile output on the other hand remained decidedly subdued once more. Coming with the heftiest weight among other items within the LSM basket, output by the countrys largest export earner has managed to achieve a slight improvement of 0.52 percent in September over the same period last year, however, the sectors comprehensive performance for the Jul-Sept period remains largely sub-par.
Production for RMGs and other textiles remain less than impressive largely on account of waning demand in international market for the pricier Pakistani product, which is made even more so as a consequence of the increasingly expensive input costs. Competitors like Bangladesh on the other hand are churning out much cheaper produce of similar quality; consequently Bangla producers have been busy slashing Pakistans share for Textiles in the International market for much of the last two years.
However, production during the month of September for woolen and worsted cloth, knitting wool and woolen blankets remained high, with the coming winter months expected to drive up demand for the aforementioned products.
Spinners have also been kept increasingly busy, and despite the figures showing output of yarn and dyed cloth as being subdued in comparison with last years record production, reports have been that local spinners have largely been booked to capacity amidst overflowing Chinese orders.
Among other sectors showing less than stellar results, Automobiles have again stolen the thunder, with sales of locally manufactured vehicles plunging rapidly as imported cars continue to flood the market.
As industry lobbying against these imports hit an increasingly shrill pitch, the local manufacturers have been hit with persistently low demand, consequently having to off-load costs by the inclusion of Non-productive days in production schedules- with giants the like of Indus reporting as high as 12-15 NPDs during the last month alone.
Overall, the growth, all 4.06 percent of it, has been largely aided by the improved output from the Northern quarters. Improved supply of gas to Punjabs industrial units- 4 consecutive days every week- during Sept-Oct has been a major factor this time around. Although electricity disruptions continue to weigh heavily on the local LSMs productivity- driving up costs, inherently paralyzing production capacities- statistics for the period under review come quite like the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel, driving up optimism slightly.


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Weight Growth %
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Sep-12 Jul-Sep 12
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Food/Beverages & Tobacco 12.73 9.83 6.47
Iron & Steel products 5.39 29.41 16.07
Fertilizers 4.44 -36.36 -26.98
Electronics 1.96 12.84 -3.75
Textile 20.91 0.52 -0.39
Automobiles 4.61 -12.02 -1.63
Coke & Petroleum products 5.51 14.03 3.41
Pharmaceuticals 3.62 3.44 4.09
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Source: PBS.
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