An insomniacs struggle to count imaginary sheep on a sleepless night will seem more achievable before the daunting counting task that China is undertaking after a decade this year - the formidable target of calculating the number of heads in the most populous country in the world.
And the concurrent changes in the countrys economic and social parameters will be eyed keenly by the ardent followers of the Big Red.
With the one-child policy introduced by the country three decades ago, the consequent impact on the countrys demographics are expected to be quite sweeping, and the current census is likely to give some indications about the direction the population pool of China will be taking.
It is speculated that the outcome of the one-child policy will result in a broader band of relatively older people than the proportion of young in China. The US Census Bureau has projected that after reaching a peak of 329 million in 2011 (the year when the current census results will be revealed), the population of 15-29 year olds will go down to as much as 262 million in 2020.
What this essentially means is that as the demographic trends shift towards a larger proportion of retirees relative to the younger labour force, the dependency ratio will increase. According to Jamie FlorCruz, CNNs Beijing Bureau Chief, "by 2050, there will be only 1.6 working-age adults for every person aged 60 and above, creating a heavy dependency ratio."
According to the life cycle hypothesis in economics, as the population ages, consumption is likely to increase and the savings rate is expected to decline. Economists believe this phenomenon may hold true for the Chinese economy as well, and for investment to decelerate in the country as the said changes gain stronghold.
Lately, China has been charged with several allegations against its export-based economy, with the low domestic consumption and spending under criticism for leading to an imbalanced mode of growth in the country. An increase in consumption will potentially help rebalance the economy by spurring domestic spending and lull the contentions against the countrys growth.
Because of a decrease in the proportion of the younger labour force, wages might also increase as supply falls short of demand, and the ensuing higher disposable income levels will help boost domestic consumption. This, again, will help rebalance the economy with time.
But before one cheers for Chinas rebalancing, the downsides should also be paid heed to. An elevation in domestic spending will also prop up inflation, and thus the cost of capital. As investment expenditure will decrease because of this, the countrys growth rate might also get affected. Roubini Global Economics, an economic think tank claims that the potential growth rate could be down to about 8 percent in 2015. It was 9.6 percent for the third quarter of 2010.
Needless to say, the pressure on the government to provide social security benefits to the countrys aging population will be another mammoth challenge.
The upcoming census results will give a clearer picture about the above mentioned demographic changes, particularly through the estimate of the countrys fertility rate. The official Chinese total fertility rate (TFR - the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime) fell from an estimated 1.8 after 1991, to 1.2 in the 2000 census.
If the downward trend in the countrys TFR continues, the demographic collage will paint a very critical picture. The headcount quantum will be far more significant than a bold headline on newspapers. Be prepared, Chinese policymakers.