BR Research

Way to go, China!

Published October 21, 2010 Updated October 21, 2010 12:00am

If theres one country that has been shamelessly bashed by the international community, its China. Be it the controversy surrounding the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo, or the debate over the revaluation of the Yuan, or even the regional dispute over the South China Sea, China has been punched for all.
As the country braces for its five-year development plan starting in 2011, the ruling Communist Party has called for lower income disparity by focusing on growth among low-wage workers and farmers.
This blueprint comes at a time when the countrys domestic consumption and spending had been criticised from all corners, alleging that Chinas export-based growth is unsustainable - charges slapped that are partly true.
Chinas private consumption as a percentage of GDP declined from around 55 percent in the 1980s to nearly 37 percent in 2008. This does not go to say that consumption itself has declined; only the rate of growth in consumption has fallen relative to the countrys GDP growth.
A slowdown of consumption can be attributed to a number of factors; the primary one being higher household savings for a rainy day, in the absence of health, education and pension welfare schemes from the government.
According to an IMF working paper on China, a 1-Yuan increase in government health spending is associated with a 2-Yuan increase in household consumption.
Interestingly, Chinas one-child policy, and a dominant male population amongst the offspring help foster a higher propensity to save. According to a study by Shang-Jin Wei, Professor of Finance, Economics and Chinese Business at the Columbia University, there are approximately 122 boys born for every 100 girls in China today.
Contrary to what one would see in Pakistans dowry-culture, households in China with a unique male child tend to save more for a more competitive marriage environment when the male children reach marriageable age.
Rising income inequality has also been a deterrent in spurring greater consumption growth in the country. A recent Reuters report cited a Credit Suisse-sponsored study by Chinese economists claiming that the income of the richest 10 percent of Chinese is 65 times that of the poorest 10 percent.
With a higher proportion of low and middle-income groups, greater income inequality restrains consumption and demand. Even in the high-income group, the marginal consumption rate actually decreases with an increase in income.
This scenario makes the latest stance of the Communist Party seems appropriate. A more sustainable growth, with benefits shared at the grassroots will not only lead to a more balanced growth in the economy, but will also serve its masses.
An increase in public spending on health and education could be a major boost. Already, China has been investing heavily in education as a means of not only increasing the productivity of its workers, but also tapping into the services sector, in which China is still lagging behind.
It seems like China is ready to march on with hefty strides, allaying all criticisms against it, and move beyond the many controversies surrounding it these days.