At the Karachi stock market, things don seem to be working in favour. The momentum is clearly waning and there don seem to be enough treat on cards to excite the market in the near future.
Local investors have been busy making profits since the start of current fiscal year - offloading positions they took in the first of half of calendar year 2009, into the basket of foreign portfolio investors.
As a result foreign investments in Pakistani equity market, as a percentage of KSEs free float, have nearly reached a point of choking.
Off shore funds presently hold about 27 percent of the markets free float, according to Topline Securities - just shy of its life high of 30 percent seen at KSEs pinnacle in April 2008. Three-quarter of these holdings are concentrated in ten stocks that make up a little more than half (52%) of the total KSE-100 capitalization.
And knowing the concerns are developing that euro zones problem will not ease away - dragging the US with it - creates fears that foreign participation has exposed Pakistan to a downturn in regional sentiments.
Some, however, maintain a different view. "Positive news on capital gains tax, better liquidity and banks benefiting from commodity price decline head the list of triggers," noted KASB Securities last week.
This implies, that if share prices are supposed to rise another 15-20 percent, as several local participants have been pitching, then local investors should fatten their portfolios.
Aside from the temporary dive downwards to 10080 points seen on the day when Aprils CPI numbers were released last week, the market had been gyrating between 10400~10600 points in the last many weeks.
This coupled with the recent KSE slide on account of Greece-led regional and global spillover gave local investors ample opportunities to buy aggressively.
Alas they didn , as the market remained virtually volume-less, with average turnover falling to 84 million in the month-to-date from 136 million in April.
Perhaps, its typical of pre-budget nervousness, in which case the market can be seen resuming its move north once the budget is announced. The chances of that happening, however, appear dim at this point in time.
Echoing the concerns of KASB Securities that said "a blow out event on politics remains a key Pakistan risk", Moodys rating agency mentioned Pakistans political situation as one of the two key challenges facing the countrys economy.
The second one, of course, weak government finances - a factor that might force monetary managers to hike up rates at some point later, in case the situations worsens.
The future of VAT appears dicey at the moment, with some stakeholders expecting a drop in revenues in the first years, whereas on the expenditure side, debt servicing is an inescapable expense.
Then there are expenses on war against terror which will continue to weigh on the government - especially after reports of Taliban allegedly finding a safe haven in Karachi and the recent NY bombing attempt.
So when the market opens today, one may expect a positive reaction to IMF inflows and the rephasing of three remaining disbursements into two. If and when that happens, uy the rumour, sell the fact might just be a good trading strategy.