Rumour had it that Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin had planned to quit the government anytime soon on account of his failure to garner the required political support for his game plan.
Although, the release of an official photograph along with a press release praising the role of Finance Ministry for not only stabilizing the economy but also putting it on the path of growth by the Prime Ministers office has come to him as an acknowledgement of his hard work and commitment, it has fuelled speculation.
According to market talks, Tarins lifelong savings invested into Silk Bank are at an increasing risk. And, the foreign investor, who took a bet on him, are also unhappy at his absence from the helm of the newly transformed lender.
Further, it is pointed out that Tarin is increasingly unhappy with the working of some key cabinet colleagues who appear to lack the ability and also carry a heavy baggage from their pasts, which is hampering the progress on the roadmap developed by the Economic Advisory Team, headed by him, prior to his assignment as the Finance Minister.
The frontrunner among the politicians is said to be Makhdoom Shahbuddin - a former Minister of State for Finance, in Benazir Bhuttos government and now the Minister of Health.
Another name being floated by certain quarters is that of Nasim Beg - a chartered accountant currently heading Arif Habib Investment, after gaining extensive work experience in capital markets in London, UAE and Pakistan.
Reports suggest that he was considered a possible replacement for Tarin to chair the Prime Ministers Economic Advisory Team. But, he did not accept the assignment at that point in time due to difficulties being faced by Arif Habib Investment on account of price-floor at the KSE. Now, that the situation has stabilized, he is said to be more likely to accept the challenge.
If Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has his way, however, the two frontrunners would be Dr. Hafeez Pasha or Dr. Ishrat Hussain, where the former seems to have better chance. In fact, compared to Tarin who is also a senator, Pasha reportedly enjoys better reputation, given that he is believed to be less biased.
According to unconfirmed reports, the final decision to let Tarin go may be days or weeks away. But at the moment, it has all the key economic agents worried. Both the khakis as well as the donors will also be concerned at the sudden change.
However, a change before the next round with the IMF (Feb 8) is highly unlikely, where the main point of discussion would be the perennial issues - starting with the fiscal deficit, which was 2.7 percent of the GDP in the first six months.
Since, the full-year forecast is now 5.3 percent as against the agreed target of 4.3 percent; the IMF is likely to press for an increase in special excise duty from one percent to five percent to cover the burden of additional expenditure.
The challenge in preparing the next years budget - with the new National Finance Commission Award in play - is the increase in the revenue pie, as with a higher share, the incentive for provinces to generate resources on their own is less.
While imposing capital gain tax on shares maybe easier, their concurrence to have a uniform CGT on real estate is a big challenge, whereas having a proper mechanism to tax agriculture income, being a provincial subject, still remains a mirage.